There are less than two weeks, and only one weekend, remaining to vote in the 2020 elections, and the clock is ticking! Early voting continues through Friday, October 30, with Election Day on November 3.
- Final presidential debate in the books
- Early voting surge continues
- Texas Supreme Court upholds drive-through voting
- Hegar outraises Cornyn in U.S. Senate race
- Can you trust the polls?
The presidential candidates wrapped up their second and final debate of the campaign season last night in Nashville, Tennessee. The final debate had been rescheduled by the Commission on Presidential Debates after an earlier townhall-style event was canceled when the president contracted COVID-19. Now the campaigns will go their separate ways for the remainder of the election. A new Quinnipiac University poll this week showed Donald Trump and Joe Biden tied at 47% each among likely Texas voters. A rolling average of recent polls tracked by RealClearPolitics shows Trump with a 4% advantage in Texas.
The Texas Tribune reports that 5.9 million Texans have voted early as of October 21, or about 34.7% of registered voters. Of those, 4.3% submitted their ballots by mail. According to early voting statistics compiled by Republican consultant Derek Ryan, 32.1% of early voters last voted in a Republican primary, compared to 29.0% who last voted in a Democratic primary. Another 26.3% have voted in a general election but have no primary election voting history, and 12.7% of the early voters have no history of voting in any election before now.
The Texas Supreme Court continued to release election-related decisions this week. The state’s highest court ruled in favor of Harris County on Thursday and tossed out a challenge by the Republican Party of Texas to block drive-through voting in the state’s largest county. This means voters in Harris County can continue to visit one of 10 drive-through voting locations set up by the county to allow voters fearing COVID-19 to cast ballots from the safety of their automobiles.
In the race for U.S. Senate here in Texas, Democratic candidate MJ Hegar reported raising three times as much as incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the first half of October, $3.7 million to $1.3 million. Hegar also ended with more money in the bank, $6.9 million to $3.8 million. Both candidates spent around the same amount, with Cornyn spending $5.6 million and Hegar spending $5.3 million. This week’s Quinnipiac poll shows Cornyn with a 6% advantage over Hegar, 49% to 43%.
Speaking of polls, Texas Tribune Executive Editor Ross Ramsey points out in this handy video how polls have their strengths and weaknesses. Many polls in 2016 inaccurately predicted Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would win the presidential election. Polls are based on estimates of what the electorate will look like, and predicting that is part art and part science. Polls are generally quite accurate, but unexpected changes in the electorate can throw off a poll’s results. Pollsters have therefore spent the years since 2016 trying to develop better models of the electorate, especially at the state level. A poll is also a snapshot of a single moment in time, which is why you see margins shift over the course of an election cycle. The best way to consume polling information is to look at an average of recent polls.
The first two weeks of early voting have already set records, and there is still a full week of early voting left! If you haven’t voted yet, go to the candidates section here at Teach the Vote and research the races based on your address. Then make your plan to go vote with the aid of this handy guide. Your vote is the single most impactful tool you have to ensure our schools are safe, healthy, and well-funded. Now get out there and exercise it!