Tag Archives: mj hegar

Texas 2020 election recap: What we know so far

After one of the most unusual campaign seasons we’ve ever experienced, the 2020 election is finally (mostly) in the books! While we’re still awaiting official results in many races, a general picture of the new political landscape is beginning to take shape. It should be noted that some mail-in ballots, particularly those that were postmarked on Election Day and any votes cast by military members serving overseas, have yet to be counted. Some close results could still change once those outstanding ballots are processed.

Republicans look like they will hold onto their majority in the Texas House of Representatives, which Democrats had hoped to capture by flipping at least nine competitive House seats. The current split is 83 Republicans and 67 Democrats, and the early returns showed Republicans narrowly fending off Democratic challengers in all but one race. State Rep. Sarah Davis (R-Houston) conceded to Democratic opponent Ann Johnson Tuesday night on Twitter. That race appears to be offset by Democratic state Rep. Gina Calanni’s (D-Katy) loss to Republican Mike Schofield, who held the seat before Calanni defeated him in 2018.

Control of the House means the next speaker would be drawn from among Republican ranks, and the politicking among GOP candidates for speaker continued through election night and into this morning. State Rep. Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont), who chaired the House State Affairs Committee during the 2019 legislative session, announced Wednesday on Twitter that he had gathered the votes necessary to be elected speaker, although that election cannot take place until the Legislature meets in January.

The speaker will appoint committees and set the House agenda for the upcoming legislative session, beginning with important decisions about how to conduct the physical process of legislating and whether the House should conduct its business at the Texas Capitol or an alternate location in order to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Republican control of the House would also guarantee GOP control of the redistricting process, ensuring that the new voting maps will favor Republicans for the next 10 years.

In the Texas Senate, former state Rep. Cesar Blanco (D-El Paso) was elected to succeed retiring state Sen. Jose Rodriguez (D-El Paso). Democrats reclaimed a seat lost to Republican Pete Flores in a 2018 special election. Former state Rep. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio) defeated Sen. Flores by a relatively narrow margin of 10,000 votes. The Democratic win shifts the split in the Texas Senate to 18 Republicans and 13 Democrats, which would give Democrats the ability to block controversial legislation under the current Senate’s rule requiring three-fifths of members present and voting to consent to hearing a bill on the floor. The Texas Senate had previously boasted a long history of requiring a supermajority to pass legislation, a rule that was intended to prevent the chamber from becoming a partisan theater. Republican Dan Patrick immediately lowered that threshold from two-thirds after his election as lieutenant governor, and he has already announced his intention to lower the threshold to a simple majority should Democrats gain more seats.

Democrats appear on track to gain one seat on the 15-member State Board of Education (SBOE). Democrat Rebecca Bell-Metereau leads Republican Lani Popp in District 5, which was previously held by retiring Member Ken Mercer (R-San Antonio). Democrats had hoped to pick up two additional seats, which would have wrested the board majority from Republicans. Instead, the new board looks like it will be split between nine Republicans and six Democrats. The board will feature new members from both parties, including Republicans Audrey Young from East Texas and Jay Johnson from the panhandle, both of whom replaced retiring members. Over the past few years, the SBOE has become markedly less partisan and even at times a model of bipartisan productivity. We’re optimistic that the new class will continue along that path.

At the state level, Democrats’ hopes that Texas would step into the blue or purple column were dashed Tuesday night. Republican Donald Trump won 52% of the presidential vote in Texas, which is about the same share of Texas voters that he won in 2016. U.S. Sen. John Cornyn defeated Democratic challenger MJ Hegar by 10 percentage points, which was roughly double the margin that separated Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Democrat Beto O’Rourke in 2018.

Stay tuned to our blog here on Teach the Vote for more detailed election results as we obtain more finalized information.

Texas election roundup: Less than two weeks remaining!

There are less than two weeks, and only one weekend, remaining to vote in the 2020 elections, and the clock is ticking! Early voting continues through Friday, October 30, with Election Day on November 3.


The presidential candidates wrapped up their second and final debate of the campaign season last night in Nashville, Tennessee. The final debate had been rescheduled by the Commission on Presidential Debates after an earlier townhall-style event was canceled when the president contracted COVID-19. Now the campaigns will go their separate ways for the remainder of the election. A new Quinnipiac University poll this week showed Donald Trump and Joe Biden tied at 47% each among likely Texas voters. A rolling average of recent polls tracked by RealClearPolitics shows Trump with a 4% advantage in Texas.


The Texas Tribune reports that 5.9 million Texans have voted early as of October 21, or about 34.7% of registered voters. Of those, 4.3% submitted their ballots by mail. According to early voting statistics compiled by Republican consultant Derek Ryan, 32.1% of early voters last voted in a Republican primary, compared to 29.0% who last voted in a Democratic primary. Another 26.3% have voted in a general election but have no primary election voting history, and 12.7% of the early voters have no history of voting in any election before now.

The Texas Supreme Court continued to release election-related decisions this week. The state’s highest court ruled in favor of Harris County on Thursday and tossed out a challenge by the Republican Party of Texas to block drive-through voting in the state’s largest county. This means voters in Harris County can continue to visit one of 10 drive-through voting locations set up by the county to allow voters fearing COVID-19 to cast ballots from the safety of their automobiles.


In the race for U.S. Senate here in Texas, Democratic candidate MJ Hegar reported raising three times as much as incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn in the first half of October, $3.7 million to $1.3 million. Hegar also ended with more money in the bank, $6.9 million to $3.8 million. Both candidates spent around the same amount, with Cornyn spending $5.6 million and Hegar spending $5.3 million. This week’s Quinnipiac poll shows Cornyn with a 6% advantage over Hegar, 49% to 43%.


Speaking of polls, Texas Tribune Executive Editor Ross Ramsey points out in this handy video how polls have their strengths and weaknesses. Many polls in 2016 inaccurately predicted Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would win the presidential election. Polls are based on estimates of what the electorate will look like, and predicting that is part art and part science. Polls are generally quite accurate, but unexpected changes in the electorate can throw off a poll’s results. Pollsters have therefore spent the years since 2016 trying to develop better models of the electorate, especially at the state level. A poll is also a snapshot of a single moment in time, which is why you see margins shift over the course of an election cycle. The best way to consume polling information is to look at an average of recent polls.

The first two weeks of early voting have already set records, and there is still a full week of early voting left! If you haven’t voted yet, go to the candidates section here at Teach the Vote and research the races based on your address. Then make your plan to go vote with the aid of this handy guide. Your vote is the single most impactful tool you have to ensure our schools are safe, healthy, and well-funded. Now get out there and exercise it!