Tag Archives: math

Educators gain friendly statehouse seats in midterms

After more than a year of voter mobilization efforts aimed at making an impact on the Texas Legislature, educators sprinted across the finish line Tuesday with plenty to be proud of.

Pro-public education candidates for the Texas House of Representatives, both Democrats and Republicans, had a great night. When the dust settled, 74 percent of candidates supported by ATPE-PAC won their races. Conversely, many candidates backed by the infamous group Empower Texans lost their races last night. Forty-two candidates endorsed by the pro-public education entity Texas Parent PAC were victorious, including these new representatives-elect:

  • HD 4—Keith Bell, R-Forney
  • HD 8—Cody Harris, R-Palestine
  • HD 46—Sheryl Cole, D-Austin
  • HD 47—Vikki Goodwin, D-Austin
  • HD 52—James Talarico, D-Round Rock
  • HD 62—Reggie Smith, R-Van Alstyne
  • HD 105—Terry Meza, D-Irving
  • HD 113—Rhetta Bowers, D-Garland
  • HD 114—John Turner, D-Dallas
  • HD 115—Julie Johnson, D-Addison
  • HD 118—Leo Pacheco, D-San Antonio
  • HD 121—Steve Allison, R-San Antonio
  • HD 126—Sam Harless, R-Houston
  • HD 136—John H Bucy III, D-Round Rock

Democrats gained 12 seats in the Texas House, which lowers the mathematical advantage for Republicans to 83-67 from the more lopsided 95-55. This shouldn’t matter on most issues, but it could be extremely significant when it comes to dealing with highly partisan legislation such as vouchers or another anti-teacher payroll deduction bill, which the Republican Party of Texas has declared a top legislative priority despite resistance from within the Republican caucus. This new math could also influence the selection of a new House speaker to replace retiring pro-public education Speaker Joe Straus (R-San Antonio).

Over to the Texas Senate, the addition of two pro-public education members marks a slight improvement over the last legislative session. Beverly Powell defeated incumbent state Sen. Konni Burton (R-Colleyville) 52-48%, and Nathan Johnson defeated incumbent Sen. Don Huffines (R-Dallas) 54-46%.  Their election helps offset the loss of a Democrat-held seat won by Republican state Senator-elect Pete Flores during a summer special election for Senate District 19.

The GOP majority in the Texas Senate now changes to 19-12 from 21-10, however Republicans will hold a 19-11 advantage for the majority of session due to U.S. Representative-elect Sylvia Garcia’s (D-Houston) refusal to resign her state senate seat on time to hold a replacement election before the legislative session begins.

Under the Senate’s 3/5 rule, 19 votes are needed to pass most major legislation, and just 18 votes will be needed until Garcia’s seat is filled. This is very significant math in the Senate, where Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R-Texas) was able to push through multiple anti-public education bills, including voucher legislation, along largely party-line votes last session. However, there is reason to be optimistic that the results of this election cycle may embolden some pro-public education Republicans in the Senate to stand up to the lieutenant governor on these divisive issues.

Speaking of the lieutenant governor, Texas voters awarded him four more years Tuesday night. Despite his extremely anti-public education policies, Dan Patrick won reelection with a 51-46% victory over Democratic businessman Mike Collier. Patrick’s support roughly tracked with his GOP colleagues on the statewide ballot. Patrick, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton each received about 4.2 million votes. Gov. Greg Abbott received the most votes at 4.6 million.

The results up and down the statewide ballot were fairly consistent despite vast differences in the amount spent in each race. Cruz’s Democratic challenger, Congressman Beto O’Rourke, raised a staggering $70 million. His performance at the polls was largely mirrored by his statewide Democratic colleagues who raised a fraction of that amount. Democrats dominated the state’s largest urban areas and were thereby able to flip several local seats, but their numbers were not sufficient to overcome rural Republicans’ advantage in statewide races.

Now begins the process of dissecting the polling data to try and derive additional insights. At a general level, the Democratic strategy relied in part on mobilizing Democratic voters to achieve presidential election-level turnout while hoping Republicans turned out at typical midterm election levels. What happened instead was both Democrats and Republicans turned out at levels approaching a presidential election.

A total of 8.3 million Texas voters turned out for the 2018 midterm elections, compared to just 4.6 million voters for the 2014 midterms. Tuesday marked the highest turnout for a midterm election in Texas history, overall second only to the 2016 presidential election in which just shy of 9.0 million Texans voted. Looking deeper, about 400,000 fewer people voted for Cruz in 2018 than voted for Donald Trump in 2016. Conversely, O’Rourke received roughly 400,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton.

Registration of eligible voters increased to 79.40 percent in 2018 from 74.15 percent in 2014. This year’s turnout of 52.70 percent marked a 59 percent increase in turnout from 33.70 percent who participated in 2014. Turnout for the 2016 presidential election was 59.39 percent. In raw numbers, turnout compared to the last midterm election was nearly double.

So what does this all mean? It means that overall, educators did a great job electing local candidates who will stand up for public education. Through your hard work, you’ve made a positive difference on the political math within the Texas Legislature. Notwithstanding this success, arguably the largest challenge facing educators will be the retention of statewide leaders who have not taken the most education-friendly stances in the past. Will close calls during this election and the increase in voter turnout and enthusiasm among the education community this year provide an incentive for state leaders to become more responsive to and accountable for the needs of public schools? With the elections over, the battle now moves from the ballot box to the statehouse. Educators will need to harness the same enthusiasm to help make the 2019 legislative session a success for our students and classrooms.

12 Days of Voting: Math!

Early voting is underway NOW for the November 6 elections, so we’re taking a look at some of the reasons why it’s so important that educators vote TODAY! In this post, we’re taking a closer look at how elections determine critical legislative math.


Politics involves a lot of math.

A candidate needs fifty percent of voters plus one in order to get elected to office. The Texas Legislature meets for 140 days, but can’t pass legislation until 60 of those days have passed – unless acting upon an emergency item declared by the governor.

Here’s another equation for you:

The Texas Senate consists of 31 members and requires a vote of three-fifths of those present and voting to pass most major legislation. That means if everyone is present, a bill needs the support of 19 senators to pass. Republican Pete Flores won a September special runoff election to fill the Senate District 19 seat previously held by state Sen. Carlos Uresti (D-San Antonio), which places the current makeup of the Texas Senate at 21 Republicans and 10 Democrats.

This actually is an important bit of math for supporters of public education.

In the past legislative session alone, we’ve seen legislation harmful to public education pass along largely party line votes under the direction of Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. This includes voucher bills to strip funding from public schools in order to create taxpayer-funded subsidies for private schools. It also includes payroll deduction bills designed to rob teachers of their influence at the Capitol by making it more difficult to join educator associations such as ATPE.

recent article by the Texas Tribune put the Senate math in the context of the 2018 general election, and pointed out that the outcomes of a handful of races this November could have some very significant ramifications when it comes to the next legislative session.

Multiple senators who voted for vouchers and against teachers last session are currently up for reelection and facing serious challenges this November. The Texas Tribune highlighted three of the most high-profile races in which sitting senators now find themselves in the hot seat, in large part due to their past anti-public education votes: Sens. Don Huffines (R-Dallas), Konni Burton (R-Colleyville), and Joan Huffman (R-Houston).

If the lieutenant governor loses too many loyalists who’ve reliably cast votes against the interests of students and teachers, he won’t have enough votes to force through anti-education bills along party lines as he did last session.

In the latter case, members would be forced to work across party lines – and the balance of power would shift away from the lieutenant governor, giving individual members more freedom to vote in the interests of their constituents, rather than party leaders.

To make things even more uncertain, an unresolved dispute between Gov. Greg Abbott and retiring Sen. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) means the 2019 legislative session will begin with the Senate one seat short. That lowers the magic number for passing bills via one party’s super-majority to only 18.

It’s tempting to look at this all in terms of “Rs” and “Ds,” but that ignores important issues like public education, where there are Republicans who disagree with the lieutenant governor, but either don’t number enough to overcome the magic number or fear the lieutenant governor’s current absolute power. Changing the math changes both.

File it under the list of reasons this upcoming general election is important. Maybe your friends aren’t the type to get hyped up about voting. Maybe they just don’t find elections that exciting.

I offer an alternative appeal: Math!

Now that’s exciting!


Go to the CANDIDATES section of our Teach the Vote website to find out where officeholders and candidates in your area stand on this and other public education issues.

Remind your colleagues also about the importance of voting and making informed choices at the polls. While it is illegal to use school district resources (like your work e-mail) to communicate information that supports or opposes specific candidates or ballot measures, there is NO prohibition on sharing nonpartisan resources and general “get out of the vote” reminders about the election.

Early voting in the 2018 general election runs Monday, October 22, through Friday, November 2. Election Day is November 6, but there’s no reason to wait. Get out there and use your educator voice by casting your vote TODAY!

Recap: SD 19 upset significantly alters Senate math

An upset victory by Republican Pete Flores in the Senate District (SD 19) special runoff election last night will have a significant impact on the balance of power in the Texas Senate. It’s also a wake-up call.

Flores, a retired game warden, beat the Democratic favorite, former U.S. Rep. Pete Gallego, in Tuesday’s special runoff election to finish the unexpired term of Democratic state Sen. Carlos Uresti, who resigned earlier this year in scandal. That seat will now move to the Republican column until at least 2020, when Flores will come up for reelection.

There were warning signs early on that the SD 19 race would likely be close. The district has historically elected Democratic state senators, and broke for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in 2016 by a margin of 11.5 percent. Yet just two years earlier during the 2014 mid-term elections, Republican Greg Abbott edged Democrat Wendy Davis in SD 19 by 0.1 percent in the gubernatorial race, and Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn outpaced Democratic challenger David Alameel by 7.3 percent.

The timing of Sen. Uresti’s resignation allowed Gov. Abbott to set a special election in the middle of summer, guaranteeing a low-turnout special election that would mitigate Democrats’ general election advantage and allow the race to turn on whichever party could do a better job of getting out the vote (GOTV).

For context, SD 19 recorded 478,000 registered voters in 2016. Based on that number, roughly 5.4 percent of voters participated in the July 31 special election and 9.2 percent turned out for the September 18 special runoff. By contrast, turnout in SD 19 for the 2016 presidential election was 52.7 percent, and turnout for the 2014 mid-term elections was 27.7 percent.

As we previously reported on Teach the Vote, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick was keen to flip the SD 19 seat from blue to red in order to boost his party’s mathematical advantage in the Texas Senate. The lieutenant governor and his allies spent a prodigious amount of money in support of Flores between the special election and the special runoff. We’ll take a closer look at that spending as the official figures become available.

All of this had an appreciable effect on the final outcome. According to the Texas Secretary of State, roughly 26,000 people voted in the July 31 special election. More than 44,000 voted in the September 18 special runoff election — representing a 69.75 percent increase in turnout. Flores ultimately won with 53 percent of the vote, compared to 47 percent for Gallego.

So what does this mean?

Immediately, it means that the Texas Senate is now composed of 21 Republicans and 10 Democrats. Under the current 3/5 rule, the lieutenant governor only needs 19 votes for his party to pass major legislation, which in the recent past has included voucher bills aimed at stripping public school funding and anti-teacher payroll deduction bills. These bills passed the Texas Senate largely along party-line votes. As its newest member, Flores brings to the Senate an alliance with Lt. Gov. Patrick and his openly expressed support for private school vouchers.

Furthermore, outgoing state Sen. Sylvia Garcia’s (D-Houston) failure to effectively secure a clear retirement date means that the 2019 legislative session will begin with a vacant seat, for a total of 21 Republicans and 9 Democrats in the Senate. Voters in SD 6 will choose Garcia’s successor in another special election that will be held while the legislature is in session next spring. Until then, only 18 votes will be needed to pass major legislation out of the upper chamber.

At the 30,000-foot level, Tuesday’s outcome in San Antonio highlights the importance of two things: First, the November elections are of even more critical importance. Second, turnout is paramount.

While it’s easy to think of elections in terms of Democrats versus Republicans, this discounts the reality that many Republican officeholders — even some in the Senate — support public education. The challenge is that Senate Republicans are under an enormous amount of pressure from the lieutenant governor to cast anti-education votes. The surest path to helping them is to change the math by electing senators who are not beholden to the lieutenant governor.

Of course, electing pro-public education candidates means showing up. Make no mistake, the forces trying to defund and privatize our neighborhood schools do not suffer from voter apathy. They are capable of raising and spending countless millions of dollars in order to motivate low-information voters to turn out and vote against their own interests and those of their children. The only way to fight back is to ensure that you and everyone you know makes it to the polls this November to cast an informed vote for public education.

To put it simply: If we don’t vote, we will lose.

If that happens, not only do we lose, but our schools and our kids lose as well. The result of the special runoff election Tuesday came as a surprise to many, but it should not come as a shock. It should serve as a reminder of the powers at play and the stakes of sitting out.

 

 

Why November is important: It’s the maths, y’all

Politics involves a lot of math.

A candidate needs fifty percent of voters plus one in order to get elected to office. The Texas Legislature meets for 140 days, but can’t pass legislation until 60 of those days have passed – unless acting upon an emergency item declared by the governor.

Here’s another equation for you:

The Texas Senate consists of 31 members and requires a vote of three-fifths of those present and voting to pass most major legislation. That means if everyone is present, a bill needs the support of 19 senators to pass. In the current makeup of the Texas Senate, 20 are Republicans and 11 are Democrats.

This actually is an important bit of math for supporters of public education.

In the past legislative session alone, we’ve seen legislation harmful to public education pass along largely party line votes under the direction of Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. This includes voucher bills to strip funding from public schools in order to create taxpayer-funded subsidies for private schools. It also includes payroll deduction bills designed to rob teachers of their influence at the Capitol by making it more difficult to join educator associations such as ATPE.

A recent article by the Texas Tribune put the Senate math in the context of the 2018 general election, and pointed out that the outcomes of a handful of races this November could have some very significant ramifications when it comes to the next legislative session.

Multiple senators who voted for vouchers and against teachers last session are currently up for reelection and facing serious challenges this November. The Texas Tribune highlighted three of the most high-profile races in which sitting senators now find themselves in the hot seat, in large part due to their past anti-public education votes: Sens. Don Huffines (R-Dallas), Konni Burton (R-Colleyville), and Joan Huffman (R-Houston).

If just one of those incumbents lose their race, a single Republican could defy the lieutenant governor and stop a voucher bill in its tracks. If two are defeated, the lieutenant governor won’t have enough votes to force through anti-education bills along party lines as he did last session.

In the latter case, members would be forced to work across party lines – and the balance of power would shift away from the lieutenant governor, giving individual members more freedom to vote in the interests of their constituents, rather than party leaders.

There’s also a twist.

The special runoff election underway this week to fill the Senate District 19 seat previously held by a Democrat has attracted the lieutenant governor’s attention; Lt. Gov. Patrick knows flipping that seat would change the math again. That’s why it’s no surprise to see Patrick loudly campaigning for the pro-voucher Republican candidate running in that San Antonio-area special election that will be decided on Tuesday, Sept. 18:

Also, an unresolved dispute between Gov. Greg Abbott and retiring Sen. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) means the 2019 legislative session will begin with the Senate one seat short. That lowers the magic number for passing bills via one party’s super-majority to only 18.

It’s tempting to look at this all in terms of “Rs” and “Ds,” but that ignores important issues like public education, where there are Republicans who disagree with the lieutenant governor, but either don’t number enough to overcome the magic number or fear the lieutenant governor’s current absolute power. Changing the math changes both.

File it under the list of reasons this upcoming general election is important. Maybe your friends aren’t the type to get hyped up about voting. Maybe they just don’t find elections that exciting. I offer an alternative appeal:

Math!

Now that’s exciting!