Tag Archives: Bernie Sanders

Texas election roundup: The long delay

Election politics is pretty much in a holding pattern across most of Texas as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. Gov. Greg Abbott announced late Friday that the primary runoff elections for state and federal offices originally scheduled for May 26 will be postponed until July 14. This is the same date as the special runoff election for Senate District (SD) 14 to replace state Sen. Kirk Watson (D-Austin), who announced his retirement from the Texas Legislature earlier this year.

Speaking of the SD 14 race, Travis County Judge Sarah Eckhardt announced this week she will push back her resignation in order to focus on the coronavirus response. Eckhardt had announced plans to resign her office, as she is legally required to do, in order to run for the SD 14 seat. Eckhardt is permitted to serve in her current office until a successor is sworn in, which in this case will be former Travis County Judge Sam Biscoe. State Rep. Eddie Rodriguez (D-Austin) has also filed to run for the SD 14 seat.

Earlier this month, Gov. Abbott gave local political subdivisions (i.e. city councils, county governments, local school boards, etc.) the ability to postpone their elections to November 3 from their original May 2 uniform election date. According to TXElects.com, only a handful have formally delayed their local elections as of yet. While Georgetown and Fort Bend ISD are among those that have gone ahead and moved their elections, Waco and Waco ISD are considering sticking with the May 2 elections as scheduled. This has apparently created somewhat of a standoff in McLennan County, where the county elections administrator reportedly warned the city and school districts that the county would refuse to conduct the elections in May regardless of their decision.

The delays, coupled with local stay-at-home orders, have radically altered the campaign landscape in Texas. Many campaigns are suspending fundraising operations and focusing on community services. Most have put aside in-person campaigning in order to focus their resources online in order to reach people stuck in their homes. But while activity has ground down, it has certainly not stopped.

As candidates and officeholders continue to try shape their messaging in light of the current health crisis, they may be wise to consider the results of a national poll by Ragnar Research. First reported by the Quorum Report, the poll shows that 88% of Americans view the coronavirus outbreak as either “very serious” or “somewhat serious.” When sorted by political parties, 53% of Republicans said the coronavirus outbreak is “very serious,” compared to 83% of Democrats and 70% of independents. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control calls the coronavirus outbreak a “serious public health risk.”

Other political pollsters are also continuing to survey the American public more broadly during this time of national crisis. According to an Economist/YouGov poll released Wednesday, 34% believe the country is headed in the right direction, while 54% believe it is on the wrong track. At the same time, 48% of respondents approve of the president’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak, while 46% disapprove. The RealClearPolitics rolling average of recent polls puts President Trump at -2.5% approval, or 47% approve to 49.5% disapprove.

It’s also easy to forget there is still a presidential primary underway to choose the Democrat who will face Donald Trump in the November election. Bernie Sanders won this month’s primary in Utah, while 12 other states and Puerto Rico have postponed their presidential primaries. Connecticut, Indiana, Rhode Island, and Delaware have moved their primary elections to June 2. With Joe Biden building an insurmountable delegate lead in the primary contest, the political forecasters at FiveThirtyEight.com have placed Biden at 98% odds to win the nomination. A Monmouth poll released Tuesday has Biden leading Trump by 3% if the election were held now.

 

Texas election roundup: Week 1 of early voting

We’re more than halfway through the first week of early voting in the Texas primary elections, and preliminary information is trickling in that gives us an idea of who is showing up to the polls in these first few days.

According to TXElects.com, Bexar, Travis, Collin, and Montgomery Counties saw record turnout on the first day of early voting in the Democratic primary, while Harris, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo and Galveston Counties saw record turnout in both parties’ primaries.

A new report by election data researcher Derek Ryan found 85% of people who have voted so far in the Republican primary were voters who vote regularly in Republican primaries, while 9% had voted in a general election but had not voted in a primary election since at least 2012. In the Democratic primary, 70% were the usual Democratic primary voters, while 18% were general election voters casting a primary ballot for the first time since at least 2012. About 2% of 2020 Republican primary voters and 4% of Democratic primary voters were voting for the first time in either a primary or general election.

The same report shows that the voting history of people who have shown up to the polls so far in the 2020 Democratic primary tracks pretty closely to those who showed up in the 2018 and 2016 primary elections. While Republican primary voters in 2020 look pretty much like Republican primary voters in 2018, Republican primary voters in 2016 included a much higher proportion of general election voters participating in their first primary since at least 2012 and crossover primary voters who most recently voted in the Republican primary.

A new University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll out this week shows Bernie Sanders leading among Texas Democratic primary voters in the presidential race. Support for Sanders has grown to 24%, followed by Joe Biden at 22%, Elizabeth Warren at 15% and Michael Bloomberg at 10%. Among Republicans, 80 percent said they would “definitely” vote to reelect President Donald Trump, and 10% said they “probably” would. The numbers are flipped among Democrats, with 88 percent saying they would “definitely not” and 4% saying they would “probably not” vote to re-elect Trump in November. When it comes to “independents,” 38% said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote to reelect, while 62% said they would “definitely not” or “probably not” vote for Trump.

Finally, state Sen. Kirk Watson (D-Austin) announced this week he is retiring from the Texas Legislature and will become the first dean of the University of Houston’s new Hobby School of Public Affairs. This will trigger a special election to fill Watson’s Senate seat, most likely to be held on either the May 2 or November 3 uniform election dates. The Austin area has no shortage of potential contenders to succeed Watson, including a half dozen state representatives with deep ties to the community and extensive political networks.

As always, it’s critical that you head out to the polls this week and vote in the primary elections, as we wrote about in ATPE’s recent “Primary Colors” blog series for Teach the Vote. Because of the way Texas voting districts are gerrymandered, the primary elections are often what determines who will be elected to that seat. The earlier you vote during primary season, the less likely you are to run into the long lines we see as we get closer to election day. School funding, educator compensation, and your political voice are just a few of the issues that are at stake in the elections being held right now. So head out there and vote!

 

 

Texas election roundup: Pro-public education endorsements

Early voting in the 2020 Texas primary elections begins next Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2020, which is also Educator Voting Day. In Texas election news, a new wave of candidate endorsements that may be of interest to educators were announced this week.

Texas Parent PAC, which exclusively supports candidates who support public education, announced 10 primary election endorsements this week. These include House District (HD) 9 Rep. Chris Paddie (R-Marshall), HD 41 Rep. Bobby Guerra (D-McAllen), HD 59 Rep. J.D. Sheffield (R-Gatesville), HD 60 candidate Dr. Glenn Rogers, HD 72 Rep. Drew Darby (R-San Angelo), HD 100 Rep. Lorraine Birabil (D-Dallas), HD 119 candidate Jennifer Ramos, HD 127 Rep. Dan Huberty (R-Kingwood), HD 128 candidate Robert Hoskins (R), and SD 27 candidate Ruben Cortez (D).

Texas Parent PAC is endorsing at least two candidates who are challenging incumbent legislators. Robert Hoskins is facing Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park) in the House. Ruben Cortez, currently serving on the State Board of Education, is challenging Sen. Eddie Lucio, Jr. (D-Brownsville) for a Senate seat. Both races have attracted media attention recently. As the Houston Chronicle reported, Hoskins has the support of nearly all the local officials in his suburban Houston district, while a handful of state representatives from other districts have been stumping for Cain. Meanwhile Sen. Lucio’s office was the site of protests this week by progressive activists who are unhappy with the senator’s voting record, as reported by KGBT.

The Austin American-Statesman endorsed Rep. Erin Zwiener (D-Driftwood) and Republican candidate Bud Wymore in the HD 45 Democratic and Republican primaries, respectively. The newspaper also endorsed Jenny Roan Forgey for the Republican nomination in HD 47, which is held by Rep. Vikki Goodwin (D-Austin), and recommended Jenai Aragona-Hales in the Republican primary for HD 49, a seat held by Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin). While Hinojosa’s seat is safely Democratic, Zwiener and Goodwin both managed to flip seats in 2018 that were previously held by Republicans.

Earlier this week, new Gary Gates (R-Rosenberg), Lorraine Birabil (D-Dallas), and Anna Eastman (D-Houston) were sworn into office as new state representatives for House Districts 28, 100, and 148, respectively. All three won special runoff elections in late January and are on the ballot in 2020 vying for a full term.

In federal election news, the Texas Tribune reported Democratic presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg announced plans to employ 24 staffers in Texas after strong finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire. Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders all have staff working in Texas ahead of the March 3 primary on “Super Tuesday.”

With early voting just a few days away, it’s important to remember that elections are decided by who shows up! Check out the election-related resources from our coalition partners over at Texas Educators Vote, including text message reminders when an important election is coming up. You can also research candidates in your own local races here at Teach the Vote. Please make plans to vote next week, and encourage your family and friends to do the same!